Oil will not run out
At the turn of the century I was giving a presentation to the annual conference of Car Plus, the umbrella organisation for British cars clubs, and, in passing, I made the statement that oil will not run out.
In the Q&A session that followed it became apparent that the audience did not believe me. Many people really thought that we would run out of oil.
I do not know whether they changed their minds but my argument was that we will move from the oil age into a new age without running out of oil – we didn’t leave the Stone Age because we ran out of stones.
Elizabethan England passed laws to protect the woodlands because they feared they would run out of the timber needed in the construction of naval ships. They thought that Surrey, the pre-industrial powerhouse of England, would lose all its trees to glassmaking and iron smelting. Yet Surrey is now the most wooded county in the country.
Despite Britain being the longest-standing industrial power, we have left more coal underground than we ever consumed.
The short term problem is that current demand is outstripping our ability to convert oil into useful products. Most of the world oil production is in the hands of nationalised companies which have not invested in sufficient oil refineries. Oil refineries cannot be built over night. Once they are built the pressure on the oil price will lessen. Even so technology moves on. It is conceivable that places like Saudi Arabia will be left with oil reserves with as much value as sand.
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Comments
oil will not run out
We all know oil will run out what phases me is the fact we all still will not stop using vehicles or reduce using the car .The only answer here seems to be to pump more out of the ground and you all talk about using coal have you ever seen someone die from years of digging that horrible stuff up .so when you talk about using coal remember this fact . Maybe we have to go somewhat to living back to the past , We as a world have been spoilt by the use greed and power that oil brings .Its action that is needed .wind farms why do we need them better too turn your roofs from tiles to solar panels and fit small wind turbines in to the apex of the roof then you don't need 240 volts to run your home .you then don't need power stations or very few might be needed . A car has to look sexy fast and is now a status object rather than a need thirty years ago you would be hard pressed to see a car on the road on a Sunday ,today the roads are jammed on Sundays I think this speaks for its self . Everyone wants change nobody is willing to do it .
regard Simon
Oil not running out
You say that we all know that oil will run out but that is not true. Because I do not think it will run out and therefore your statement is false as “all” has to mean all. Perhaps you might then say that most people think that oil will run out. That might be the understanding that most people have. But that does not make them correct. It is their belief. Oil might get expensive but that is another matter. The bigger problem is the amount of pollution the burning of oil will cause.
Coming from a family of coal miners I am reasonably acquainted with the condition coal miners face – especially deep mined coal.
Oil does not, of itself, bring greed - that is part of the human condition.
Clearly, I am more optimistic than you are. I think that we'll solve the current problems even if we take a little longer to do it than I would wish.
To peak or not to peak ....
"The short term problem is that current demand is outstripping our ability to convert oil into useful products."
That is the problem - whether you call it peak oil or not. Basically oil is going to become incredibly expensive due to the gap between supply and demand - FOR WHATEVER REASON - and thus we need to drastically reduce energy use throughout the world / as well as invest in other energy sources ...
Reply by Andrew Davis
Of course, reduce, reuse, recycle - carbon fuels are not the way forward. Remember that, in real terms, oil is still cheaper than in the early 1970s.
It NOT about 'running out'
For anyone to suggest that the problem with oil is that it will run out is completely missing the piont. It's all about the flow of oil. All our current economic and food production systems rely on cheap, abudndant oil. To disrupt the flow of that oil causes these systems to break down, as we are seeing with the economy and the ever worsening food crisis.
To use the analagy of the Stone Age not ending because stones ran out. No, the stone age ended because a completely independant new material was developed. I challenge anyone to name just ONE 'alternative' technology that does not rely on oil for it's manufacture or maintainence. 95% of modern life is dependant on oil and contrary to what the article suggests, that oil is beggining to deplete. Even nuclear power needs oil to transport it's materials for a power station to function, never mind the amount of oil needed to build the structure in the first place, and you need oil to mine the uranium. Solar panels, wind turbines, wave power etc, etc, all need oil for construction and manitanance. There is nothing as energy rich or dense as oil. There is no alternative. Even biofuels need oil to grow them, fertilise and transport them, and there is the ethical problem of allowing people to starve so that you can drive.
The oil industry is not made up of idiots. The need for refining capacity would have been foreseen and the
choice not to build new refineries would have been a purely financial one, after all, why build new capacity for a declining oil supply? Oil complanies have been merging and consolidating their businesses for decades now, obscuring the widespread contraction of the industry. Even the use of new technologies is not making a significant difference to increasing supplies.
As for coal, the closure of coal mines was a political move, to undermine the power of the Unions, but even so, there were some closed because coal was too cheap and mining it became uneconomic, At the moment there is plenty of oil in the ground that is not being extracted because to do so would be piontless until the oil price is at least $200 a barrel. More projects will come online, but they will only provide a temporary relief. In the search for alternatives, old coal mines in England may yet be re-opened.
Unless and until our modern lives are 95% IN-dependant of oil, the idea that Saudi Arabia will be left with worthless oil reserves is laughable.
Oil will not run out
I agree it is "conceivable" that oil will not run out - because some new technology e.g. "nuclear fusion power capability for everything " will come along to replace it long before we reach that stage.
BUT - personally I feel this is living in false hope and not in reality.
The trouble is - people like you, dangling carrots of "hope" in front of people, simply encourages them to carry on consuming the very limited supplies of energy that we do have and a "business as usual" approach, inso far as they can afford the inevitable ever-increasing energy prices..
People will continue to believe what they want to believe I guess.
This is akin to the belief system embedded in the psyche of most Christians - that Jesus Christ will return one day after Armageddopn, and all believers in him will end up living in some place called heaven, and everything will be "alright for them" in the end.
What about the rest of us? - I ask!
Unfortunately, their greater concern for the "hereafter" rather than the present does tend to distract such people from taking any real action to counter the many environmental and other problems they are also contributing to on our planet - while they are just waiting and hoping for things to get better.
Living in hope is a very risky business!
I would much prefer to see everyone on this planet adopt a precautionary principle!
We should focus on reducing our addiction to oil - by massively reducing our consumption, increasing our energy efficiency, and making huge investments in renewable forms of energy.
Based on the same "precautionary principle" - Nuclear power is still a very "risky business" and it is hugely expensive, particularly on decomissioning costs.
Carbon Capture and Storage also has some serious. risks, and it does not come cheap either!
Nuclear Fusion is still at a very early experimental stage, which has its dangers too, and it may never prove to be practical on a larger scale, and it will also be hugely expensive to implement anyway.
Please get used to this simple fact of life.
Things are going to get increasingly tough as the oil supplies dwindle.
It is not when the oil runs out that is the problem.
The real trouble starts from now on, long before the oil actually runs out!
Best wishes from
Bill Dowling
Oil must run out eventually
Oil is a finite resource, and we are about half way through it. It will inevitably run out if we continue to suck it out of the ground.
The Stone Age did not consume stones, they moved them around. Bad analogy.
Likewise trees: bad analogy. Trees grow, unlike oil. (OK if you want to take it to the nth degree, maybe some oil is forming at the bottom of the oceans, but at nothing like the rate we are consuming it.)
Coal is a slightly closer analogy, but still different; I suspect that we can get a greater percentage out of an oil field than out of a coal field, especially if we flush it out with liquid CO2 .
Peak Oil is indeed about a mismatch between falling supply and rising demand.
Oil will run out
Oil being a finite resource, it will one day run out. The issue today is that we are close to the "peak" in oil production and that no more significant discoveries of oil have been found since the 1980's. We will not run out of oil soon but we have almost reached the end of the age of cheap oil. See ww.peakoil.net for more information.
"Oil will not run out"
Very sad to see such rubbish on the ETA site. I thought the ETA was supposed to protect the environment, not encourage "business as ususal" wastage of resources. To address the comparison with English woodlands, the only reason there is any wood left in this coountry is because we have imported (in many cases, stolen, really) vast quantities from poorer parts of the world, with no thought of the environmental consequences
Jim
Rubbish
From Andrew Davis
I am very sorry that I was unable to convey the issue clearly to you. It is axiomatic that the ETA is here to protect the environment. I was simply saying that it is climate change that is the problem. And because we are going to have to move away from oil because of climate change, in the long term oil will be left alone even if it were an abundant resource.
so what?
I don't understand the point of this comment at all. So oil won't run out.... and? Our challenge is to move from a carbon based economy (or we'll be stuffed by climate change)... how does this inform that debate?
Oil Running Out
I agree with you. Oil running out is not the problem. Even if oil supply was limitless it is the pollution and the climate change it causes that is the problem. We will move away from oil because of climate change not because it is going to run out.
Oil will not run out
I agree with the statement. However, what is running out is availability of cheap oil. Most new finds are in difficult locations, like deep down beneath the sea bed or in politically unstable locations like Iraq or require a lot of processing like the tar sands in North America. What we are facing is the end of the era of cheap oil and it is hurting.
It would make a big difference if we reduced our dependency on oil, but that is not an easy thing to do as it means changes in lifestyle. Most people would spend energy complaining rather than looking how hings could be better if we were not so dependent on oil.
To be successful in the West you need to learn how to earn and spend. I think we are seeing the beginning of the end of this shallow way of life, which has disconnected many people from the Earth.
Andrew Capel
Coordinator, Energy Descent Llanidloes
Oil running out
Andrew paraphrases Sheik Yamani observation that the Stone Age didn't end because they ran out of stones. But there are plenty of natural resources that *have* been exausted - dodos being an obvious example. No doubt lack of refining capacity contributes to high pump prices, but crude oil is pretty expensive as well at the moment.
Reply by Andrew Davis
Thank you for your thoughts. I am certainly not defending the rapacious nature of our society. I was simply saying that if humankind doesn't make it it will not be because of the lack of oil but because of other more important factors like pollution. You are correct - many species and habitat have either become extinct or seriously degraded in recent times but no minerals have disappeared to my knowledge.
Is this a troll? Most of the
Is this a troll? Most of the welsh uplands were deforested to drive the industrial revolution and to build ships. Many other forests went as well. 300 years grows a lot of trees.
It's not just a case of refineries, It's also the low level of new oil finds in spite of exploration.
And all this presupposes that there is something to replace oil with before there is a shortage of crude. No sign of that technology yet
Welsh Uplands
I am not sure what a troll is in this context. Much of the uplands were laid bare long before the industrial revolution, perhaps before the Celts arrived. My point being that supply is not the biggest problem.
We'll find lots more oil too if we want and are able to look for it – remember that most of the oil industry is in state hands.
The big problem is the pollution that the burning fuels causes. Even if there was oil everywhere and it miraculously replenishes itself it is the pollution which is the problem and it is the problem of pollution which will drive the discovery of the new technologies.